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August 07, 2020

 

 👋 <<First Name>>,

The US economy added 1.8 million jobs in July despite the surge in Coronavirus cases. The unemployment rate fell to 10.2% (fun fact: 10% UE rate occurred at peak of the 2008 recession.

In other news, Trump signed a sweeping executive order last night effectively banning TikTok. Don't worry, it goes in effect in 45 days 😱 and Microsoft could still save the day.

THE STORIES 

🗳️ Predicting the Election

🤖 The future belongs to?

POLITICS


🗳️ Predicting the Election

 

WHAT 

  • Remember the 2016 election, when most polls had Clinton over Trump by double-digits? The polls weren’t entirely misinformed; they correctly predicted the popular vote, but elections don’t work that way (thanks, electoral college)

  • You may have heard of the professor who successfully predicted every election since 1980 and called Trump’s win back in 2016. Well, he’s back with a 2020 prediction. 

  • Allan Lichtman’s methodology assumes that voters are pragmatic and vote according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country.

  • He developed this system in 1981 when he met a leading expert in predicting earthquakes. He examines 13 keys to determine whether a political “earthquake” is imminent.

WHO

  • Allan Lichtman has been a professor at American University since 1973. Not only did he get his PhD from Harvard, but he also won 100k from the game show, Tic Tac Dough.

WHY SHOULD I CARE 

  • He’s predicting that there’s going to be a political earthquake, which translates to a Biden win. 

  • The implications are numerous, but let’s take markets as an example: corporate taxes could increase (👀 on you, Amazon), profits could decrease, markets may drop. This is likely a short-term view; here’s an alternative perspective.

TL;DR 

  • Allan Lichtman is calling a Biden win in the 2020 election using his successful system adapted from predicting earthquakes. 

WATCH VIDEO HERE


COMPUTER SCIENCE


🤖 The future belongs to?

 

WHAT 

  • A recent study analyzes the effect of robots on workers in the United States and finds that robots have a mostly negative impact

  • The results show that for every robot added per 1000 workers, wages declined by 0.42% and the employment-to-population ratio decreased by 0.2%

  • For now, many of these effects are concentrated in specific industries and geographic areas

    • Currently manufacturing and the automotive industry are experiencing the greatest effects

    • Fully 38% of all deployed robots are in the automotive industry

    • This means that most of the effects of automation so far have been concentrated in the Rust Belt

  • However, the researchers predict that robots will soon have a greater effect on all routine blue-collar jobs across the country

WHO

WHY SHOULD I CARE

  • Adoption of robots and automation in general is a trend that will continue, and likely accelerate, in the future

  • Will automation unleash a new wave of industries that require human labor, meaning that unemployment will stay in check because the lost jobs are replaced, as the optimists suggest? If not, what will all these unemployed people do? Are you working in a position that will soon be automated?

TL;DR

  • Recent research has found that robots have a mostly negative impact on workers in the United States because it lowers wages and reduces employment.

READ THE PAPER HERE

PROFESSOR'S CORNER

Phew. Lots of brain workouts this week, huh? Let's switch over to a book rec related to today's themes. 

  • An American historian and Russian scientist walk into a bar...the Russian wants to work with the American on political elections. This can't be good.
  • Except this was the start of Allan Lichtman's election prediction system (minus the bar), commonly referred to as "The Keys."
  • We gave you a brief sneak peek today of Allan's system. For the full read, take a look at his book, The Keys to the White House
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