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Ken's Real Estate Review
November 2021

  Ken Sugarman

   Residential REALTOR®
   Direct (208) 585-1032 

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With the shift in weather, we’ve seen a shift in the Boise real estate market too.  Though homes are still selling for near record highs, we experienced a slight 0.2% drop in the median sales price from September to October.  It’s been refreshing to see the market cool a bit.  There are still some homes that receive multiple offers within the first few days on the market and sell for over asking price.  But, for the most part, the process of buying or selling a home seems a bit less frantic than it has been in the last several months.

Much of this shift has to do with increased inventory. Last month, there were 703 available properties for sale in the Boise market.  This was an increase in inventory of more than 300% from October 2020!  In those months when inventory was at its lowest, competition was high, influencing buyers to pay over list price to get their desired home. This led to more than half of all homes that sold in October 2020 through July 2021 to sell for over list price.  Since July 2021, as more inventory has become available and competition has eased, the number of homes selling for over list price dropped significantly to 26.15% of all home sales in October 2021.    

Although the market is becoming less and less frantic as supply moves closer and closer to present demand, every house and situation is different, and there are still many steps to navigating a successful purchase or sale.  So, please give me a call!  I know the market well and am experienced in helping buyers and sellers make wise and informed real estate decisions.  I’d love the opportunity to answer your questions, share what I know, and walk alongside you in the process!
For more information and specifics on the current market, please check out the full Boise Regional REALTORS® Market Report HERE.  

The holiday season is upon us and there are lots of ways to celebrate!  Check out our event calendar HERE for the latest local happenings.  Some events may change, so please make sure to check the website links for the most up to date information.
What Does the Future Hold for Home Prices? 
by Keeping Current Matters

If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, chances are you’ve heard talk about today’s rising home prices. And while this increase in home values is great news for sellers, you may be wondering what the future holds. Will prices continue to rise with time, or should you expect them to fall?

To answer that question, let’s first understand a few terms you may be hearing right now.
  • Appreciation is an increase in the value of an asset.
  • Depreciation is a decrease in the value of an asset.
  • Deceleration is when something happens at a slower pace.
It’s important to note home prices have increased, or appreciated, for 114 straight months. To find out if that trend may continue, look to the experts. Pulsenomics surveyed over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts asking for their five-year projections. In terms of what lies ahead, experts say the market may see some slight deceleration, but not depreciation.

Here’s the forecast for the next few years:

As the graph above shows, prices are expected to continue to rise, just not at the same pace we’ve seen over the last year. Over 100 experts agree, there is no expectation for price depreciation. As the arrows indicate, each number is an increase, which means prices will rise each year. 

Bill McBride, author of the blog Calculated Risk, also expects deceleration, but not depreciation: “My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.7% is probably close to a peak, and that year-over-year price increases will slow later this year.”  Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates agrees, saying:  “. . . home price appreciation is on the cusp of flipping to a decelerating trend.”  A recent article from indicates you should expect:  “. . . annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, . . .”

What Does This Deceleration Mean for You?
What experts are projecting for the years ahead is more in line with the historical norm for appreciation. According to data from Black Knight, the average annual appreciation from 1995-2020 is 4.1%. As you can see from the chart above, the expert forecasts are closer to that pace, which means you should see appreciation at a level that’s aligned with a more normal year.

If you’re a buyer, don’t expect a sudden or drastic drop in home prices – experts say it won’t happen. Instead, think about your homeownership goals and consider purchasing a home before prices rise further.  If you’re a seller, the continued home price appreciation is good news for the value of your house. Work with an agent to list your house for the right price based on market conditions.

Bottom Line
Experts expect price deceleration, not price depreciation over the coming years. Talk to a local real estate professional to understand what’s happening in the housing market today, where things are headed, and what it means for you.

Such a great experience buying our FIRST home! We moved here from out-of-state and we really needed a realtor that we could trust and that knew the market here and was capable of making things happen fast so we could move before school started. Ken was easy to make contact with from start to finish. We took a trip out here for a few days and looked at a number of homes that met what we were looking for and kept searching until 'the one' popped up. It did, and that's the home we ended up getting! We are so grateful for all of the guidance Ken provided along the way and all of his hard work. Once we found the home we wanted we had to fly back home and everything was done long distance and Ken made it all very easy for us. Thanks Ken for all your hard work getting us the perfect home for our family!  ~Jeff & Carolina Figearo
Read more of my client testimonials HERE.  
Message from Boise Police Chief Ryan Lee
November 2, 2021
Over the last week, I and many other officers have heard from community members about how last week’s events disrupted their sense of safety...It is natural, after an event like this, to question the overall safety of your community, so we want to share some data to help you make sense of it all...CONTINUE READING

November may be my favorite month of the year.  I love it when the warm fall weather we have in Idaho starts to get a bit cooler and when the amazing colorful leaves start to fall off the trees in preparation for winter.  When it comes to my internal core temperature, I generally fall on the warmer side.  So, when the weather gets colder, I tend to feel more comfortable.  With Thanksgiving on the horizon, I think more and more of the things I am thankful for.  I am thankful that I have two jobs which allow me to serve others.  My job as a realtor and my job as a  high school basketball coach.  They both are rewarding in different ways, but I enjoy the opportunity to see people grow through a home sale or purchase, just like I love to see the growth of young men through the game of basketball.

With November bringing the start of basketball practice, I am always challenged myself as I bring challenges daily to the players in my program.  One of the things we have been talking about the last week is how to deal with disappointment or mistakes.  Obviously our life and our perfectly made plans seldom work out the way we want them to.  How do we respond to this?  One of the strategies we teach our players is establishing a mistake/disappointment response in advance.  You cannot control what happens in your life, but you can choose how you will respond to it.  In basketball, when a player shoots an airball or throws a pass that gets stolen, there's a tendency to put their head down, pout, and not sprint back on defense.  Instead, we coach them to look outward and upward rather than inward.  We encourage them to elevate their level of positive communication with their teammates, tighten their focus on the next play, and get back to doing what they need to do in the game.   Is this easy to do?  Not at all.  Many times, our bad habits of negative words or poor body language win out when things don’t go our way. We dwell on our disappointment and not on how we respond.  We waste precious energy on feeling sorry for ourselves.  

Today in our brokerage meeting my broker, Katie Miller shared her favorite passage of scripture with us.  Proverbs 3:5-6 “Trust in the Lord with all your heart, and do not lean on your own understanding.  In all your ways acknowledge him, and he will make straight your paths.”  What an amazing promise that God gives us.  In life often our plans do not become reality.  How do we prepare for the disappointment or  change of plans?  If I place my trust in the God of the universe, who loves me intimately, then no matter what comes in this life I can walk in confidence that my God is bigger than any life circumstance.  How do I plan in advance to have this kind of perspective?  I need to know Jesus who loves me so much that he died on the cross for my sins.  God has given us his word in the Bible so that I can be reminded of God’s promises.  Passages like Proverbs 3 can be read and memorized and can prepare me for the unexpected curve balls life throws my way. I can pray and ask God for the perspective and the strength to trust Him more.  Getting Covid, losing my job, not making the team, whatever the circumstances, I can trust God to carry me through them.  While I am thankful for clients to serve, young men to coach, my precious family, a beautiful state to live in,  cooler weather to enjoy, I am most thankful for my savior Jesus Christ.  I pray that in this season of Thanksgiving you can trust and know Him too.
Recommended Service Providers
Need help with a home project, service, or repair? Check out our Homeowners Resources page HERE, where we've listed several different service providers we've used personally or who have been recommended to us.  We are always updating this list, so if you have contractors to recommend, please email my Broker!  
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