Oxbow Advisory's Geopolitical TrackerTM
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Geopolitical Risk + Opportunity: The Weekly Track

Welcome to Oxbow's Geopolitical Tracker what you need to know about geopolitics and its impact on global markets. Oxbow Advisory curates the most important news and content on geopolitical risk + opportunity across APAC, EMEA, and the US-Americas.

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Jamian Ronca Spadavecchia
Curation | Edits | Commentary

APAC Mondays - December 12, 2016


Rising global discontent will affect stability, security The growing mood of anxiety and discontent and the ground gained by extreme political parties in many developed countries will impact not just the world economy, but global security and stability, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong -The Straits Times

READ >>  Lee Kuan Yew: The Grand Master's Insights on China, the United States, and the World

The Global Populist Surge Is More than Just a Western Story—Just Look at Asia Populism may be surging in the West, but it’s a phenomenon across the Asia-Pacific as well. -The Diplomat

WATCH DECEMBER 15th >> China Faces Off Against World on Open Global Markets Anniversary of China’s accession to World Trade Organization highlights global rift over Beijing’s economic policy -WSJ

The WTO in Wonderland: China’s Awkward 15th Anniversary -CSIS

Trump Says China Will Have to Play by Rules Under New Ambassador -Bloomberg

‘Old Friends’ Aside, China Says Trump Must Toe Line on Taiwan U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will face “serious” consequences should he attempt to revise U.S. policy toward Taiwan, a state newspaper China Daily

SUNDAY MORNING EYE-OPENER >> according to US media which viewed [a Sunday morning] Fox interview Mr Trump said:

He won't be bound by "One China" policy unless Beijing makes concessions on trade -BBC

Looks like we've moved beyond a courtesy call ... @oxbowgeopolitix 

Five myths about U.S.-China relations -The Washington Post

Myth No. 1 Trade and engagement will set China free
Myth No. 2 Trump’s Taiwan call threatened the status quo
Myth No. 3 The United States has tried to contain China’s rise
Myth No. 4 China is killing the U.S. economy
Myth No. 5 China’s anti-American propaganda doesn’t matter


Hong Kong chief, pressed by all sides, won't seek new term Leung Chun-ying seen falling out of favor with Beijing on low approval rating -Nikkei

Hong Kong Election Committee vote underway Voting is underway in Hong Kong as members of 25 subsectors representing various trades and professions are choosing their representatives for an Election Committee which will select the city's next chief executive in 2017. -The Straits Times


Japan follows U.S., EU lead, will treat China as non-market economy under WTO rules The move countered China’s claim that the world’s second-largest economy will automatically be recognized as a WTO-standard market economy 15th -The Japan Times

Diet ratifies TPP but trade deal remains dead in the water without U.S. -The Japan Times

Trilateral talks on shaky ground after Park impeachment Saturday as Japan’s top government spokesman hinted that a trilateral summit with Seoul and Beijing was unlikely to be held this year. -The Japan Times


After weeks of protests, crowds celebrate Park's impeachment massive crowds returning to Seoul's streets on Saturday ... The vote for impeachment left protesters basking in pride, believing that they had repaired a damaged democracy with their weekly demonstrations. -Nikkei

Meet South Korea's new leader, Hwang Kyo-ahn Conservative prosecutor has history of friction with opposition -Nikkei


China military flights 'a warning,' say lawmakers -The China Post

What Taiwan’s Leader Sees in Donald Trump [t]he news thrilled millions of Taiwanese citizens, who have long complained that the United States has neglected the world’s only Chinese-speaking democracy in order to please authorities in Beijing. -The New Yorker

Former president Lee acclaims Tsai’s diplomacy A strong nation depends on solid leadership, government consensus and a development plan, not an ideal perpetuated by the media, Lee Teng-hui said -The Taipei Times

Senior U.S. official visits Taiwan: AIT -Focus Taiwan

The Tsai-Trump Call: The Dynamics in Taiwan Most analysis of the call overlooks a crucial component: Tsai’s own calculations and the domestic reaction on Taiwan. -The Diplomat


Donald Trump Just Gave Chinese Hawks a Great Talking Point on the South China Sea Donald Trump’s brief remark on the South China Sea may be more significant than you think. -The Diplomat

A reforming minister tries to spur Indonesia’s economy The 54-year-old economist earned a reputation as a committed reformer … says she wants strong public finances to be the “backbone” of the president’s reform drive -The Economist



Hon Hai, Sharp mull massive Chinese LCD TV panel plant Would take the fight to the South Koreans and Chinese via economies of scale -Nikkei

Be well advised to review their political risk insurance policy @oxbowadvisory

The weaponising of Hong Kong’s free-port status I believe in coincidences. It’s just that I’ve never seen one before. Seizure of Singapore’s security vehicles and the Independent Commission Against Corruption’s investigation into the DBS office in Hong Kong seem strangely well timed for maximum effect. -SCMP

It’s time to treat fake news like a terrorist activity Media companies need to take responsibility for the content in their pipelines -SCMP

Query: a warning for social media in Hong Kong?

Apple to Sell iPhone 7 in Indonesia After Clearing Local Content Requirement The government has decided to allow Apple to sell the latest version of its iPhone in Indonesia after the United States-based technology giant agreed to build a research and development center in the archipelago. -Jakarta Post

Indonesia on tech's map @oxbowadvisory  


The Man They Call ‘Mr. BOJ’ Is Shaping Policy Behind the Scenes fast-forward to 2016 and he’s the most powerful official at the central bank outside of the nine-member policy board. His monetary affairs department drafts policy, and the markets division, which he also runs, has investors around the world on tenterhooks as it buys and sells financial instruments to implement that policy. -Bloomberg

Global Risk | Global Policy | Global Government Affairs
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