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Monday, 4th January 2021

Dear The Carbon Cut Readers,

 

It is with a heavy heart that I am writing today’s message as it will be the 96th and regretfully, the final one from under The Carbon Cut brand.


First of all I would like to thank you all for all the discussions, debates and support you’ve shown over the last 9 months, and hope you’re keeping healthy and have had a wonderful and Merry Xmas!
 

In the process of publishing the Carbon Cut over the past 9 months I’ve been actively searching for and sharing with you the latest and most exciting developments in global renewables and clean energy technologies, from hydrogen and new fuels to solar, wind, energy storage and the shaping of global policies.

 

To wrap up the very eventful and erratic 2020 we can conclude that despite the vicious COVID-19 outbreak and ensuing global pandemic which locked-down the world, clean energy and the global energy transition has and is experiencing a revival not seen since 2007-2011.

 

Looking back a decade, whilst by 2011 VC investments into the sector lost half of the $25bn invested, this time really could be different for a couple of key elements which were either missing or too fragmented just a decade ago, namely:

 

1. Rapidly growing consumer awareness of environmental footprints and increasing demands for cleaner, sustainable solutions communicated to producers via mass gatherings, emergent media channels, as well as crucially - voting via capital spending and investments allocation.

 

2. Nation state, corporate and investment fund Net-Zero carbon policy alignments and pledges coupled with expanding regional + sectoral carbon pricing mechanisms which enable economic competitiveness of renewable energies with more traditional energy sources.

 

This is not to say that the sector is anywhere near maturity just yet - but the stars are aligning, fast. 

 

Are a lot of asset prices currently overinflated? Sure.

Is hydrogen currently overhyped as the holy grail substitute for oil & gas? Possibly.

Does the energy transition present a lot of economic opportunities in the decades ahead? Most definitely.

 

 

On the below Hype Cycle I believe we’re somewhere near the top of the Peak of Inflated Expectations when it comes to emergent new fuels such as hydrogen - it will likely be a couple of years before we get through the Trough of Disillusionment to reach the Slope of Enlightenment & the Plateau of Productivity - and with actions and investments currently being undertaken we can be confident that we’re on the right track to get there quick. 

From what we've seen over the course of 2020 we can also be confident that some of the more established technologies such as solar, wind and battery storage are increasingly steaming ahead on the Plateau of Productivity and the upcoming 2020-2030 decade is shaping up to redefine the global energy landscape with cleaner, sustainable energy solutions - though not without plentiful challenges that lay ahead.

 

It is these challenges coupled with the opportunities which they generate that make this sector a very exciting place to be and regretfully they are also the reason behind shutting down The Carbon Cut as the time has come to focus on niching down on specific project development activities.

 

I do hope that you've found The Carbon Cut useful, and at times entertaining, and once again I'd like to thank you for all the support you've shown.

 

Sincerely,

 

Jakub Rzepliński

 

 

PS If you would like to keep in touch and be kept in the loop regarding any projects and opportunities then let me know via a quick reply
 

PPS Let’s connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jrzeplinski
 

PPPS Full archive of The Carbon Cut will be available for the foreseeable future at thecarboncut.substack.com 

PPPPS Here’s to 2021 and beyond! 🥂

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