MAPP News, Issue 12, Summer 2018                                                                      View this email in your browser

See what's been happening this quarter in the MAPP Community!

Summer 2018

Learn more about the MAPP Program
Research Highlights

When noise becomes signal

Unusual California Precipitation Over Last Two Winters Could Have Been Predicted

A new study shows that though seasonal forecasts failed to predict the unusual California preciptation during the winters of 2015-16 and 2016-17, forecasts issued a month ahead -- within the subseasonal timescale and much further ahead than a normal weather forecast -- could have accurately predicted the abnormal winter rain. 


Find out more>>

Ready for summer heat? Study finds new primary driver of extreme Texas heat waves

A team of scientists found that a strengthened change in ocean temperatures from west to east (or gradient) in the tropical Pacific during the preceding winter is the main driver of more frequent heat waves in Texas. 
 Program Highlights

MAPP Technical Report
Publication and PI Survey Results 

NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program has published a technical report that gives an overview of the program itself as well as feedback from funded investigators.

Back in January, surveys were distributed to both
NOAA and external  funded investigators in order to collect information on the value of the MAPP program. The report includes a summary of these results. 


MAPP/NIDIS/CNAP Webinar: California Drought 2011-2017:
A Story About the Historic Drought

The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program co-hosted a webinar with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) program on the topic California Drought 2011-2017:
A Story About the Historic Drought on Tuesday, May 29, 2018, 2
- 3 p.m. ET.

Find out more>>

Drought Task Force Publishes NIDIS-MAPP
Drought & Temperature Research

In an effort to better understand temperature, and its relationship with drought, NOAA’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) Program Drought Task Force set out to research how temperature factors into the development of drought. This research was completed and published at the end of April, available on the MAPP website: Temperature and Drought: A science assessment by a subgroup of the Drought Task Force.
Register and submit an abstract for the NOAA General Modeling Meeting and Fair!
2018 Theme: "Interdisciplinary Modeling and Partnerships"
September 10-12, 2018

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, MD: Auditorium and Conference Center
  • Communication and exchange of best practices and networking across all of NOAA’s modeling enterprise
  • Moving NOAA towards a more unified approach to modeling
  • Open to NOAA modelers and external community partners
  • Under the auspices of the NOAA Research Council, Unified Modeling Committee, Information Exchange Working Group
Tutorial Sign-up: August 1, 2018
Fair Exhibit Abstract Submission:  August 1, 2018
General Registration: August 31, 2018

Find out more>>
Second International Conference on Subseasonal to Seasonal and Seasonal to Decadal Prediction (S2D)

The NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program is co-sponsoring the International Conference on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction at NCAR, Boulder, CO on September 17-21, 2018. There will be presentations about MAPP's subseasonal to decadal prediction efforts, including several from S2S Prediction Task Force and Drought Task Force funded investigators. 

Find out more>>
MAPP Task Force Updates

The Marine Prediction Task Force is leading a community white paper for OceanObs '19 on the “Observational Needs Supporting Marine Ecosystem Modeling and Forecasting” to be published in a special issue of Frontiers in Marine Science.

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The Drought Task Force has been discussing drought indicators in a monitoring context. This discussion will amplify in the upcoming second year of the Task Force with a session at AMS titled “Drought Monitoring, Early Warning, and Projection in the 21st Century—Beyond PDSI.“ The Task Force focused on understanding this issue through presentations by Mark Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center) on the Drought Monitor process, Jon Gottschalck (NOAA Climate Prediction Center) on the Drought Outlook process, and Ashok Mishra (Clemson University) on drought indicators in a changing climate.

The Model Diagnostics Task Force is developing a Process-Oriented Model Diagnostics special collection  with a lead article in BAMS entitled, “A framework for process-oriented evaluation of climate and weather forecasting models”.

Find out more>>

The S2S Prediction Task Force is accepting submissions through April 30, 2019 for a joint special collection as part of the AGU’s Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres and Geophysical Research Letters, titled “Bridging Weather and Climate: Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Prediction.” The task force will also have a strong presence at the upcoming Second International Conference on Seasonal to Decadal Prediction (S2D) on September 17-19 at NCAR, Boulder, CO. 
MAPP PI Communications

Be on the lookout for an information request on research to application transitions for your project during the past fiscal year. 

A reminder to submit your annual progress reports! See the MAPP PI Handbook for more information.

Want to see your research highlighted in our newsletter? See below on how to send us information! 

Have a new paper coming out? Use this form to let us know about papers supported through your MAPP award. A 2+ weeks notice in advance of publication is most useful.
Remember to include the following statement in your MAPP supported paper: "This study was supported by NOAA's Climate Program Office's Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections program through grant # (if applicable).

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Alison Stevens, NOAA CPO Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections Program